The inevitable future? 'Japan's shrinking population: reimagining cities and society

This article was originally published on the website of Posse Nippon, the publisher of Small Business Japan, prior to the launch of Small Business Japan (October 2024). Articles published before September 2024 have been edited and transferred to this site.

I recently watched a Japanese news program on TBS titled 'Japan's shrinking population: Reimagining cities and society for a future with fewer people.' I found it very informative for anyone living in Japan now and in the future, and I translated and summarised it in English below.

The program focuses on urban planning and how local governments should adapt to Japan's declining population. It compares two cities, Kobe and Toyama, to illustrate different approaches. Kobe is restricting the construction of high-rise condominiums (called 'tower mansions' in Japan), while Toyama is trying to concentrate its population by connecting city functions with efficient public transportation.

I chose to share this news because it's important to understand how cities, including our own, will adapt (or not adapt) to depopulation. Having lived in both Kobe and Toyama for the past 10 to 25 years, I've also included my personal perspective. It's a long post.

Summary

Translation of the promramme

• Introduction
• Japan's population: Halving in the next 100 years?
• Case Study: Kobe City – High-rise condo regulation
• Discussion: Who will take care of high-rise condos in the future?
• Case study: Toyama City – Rebuilding itself as a 'Compact City'
• Discussion: Beyond the 'connected' – Building truly networked cities
• 'Black hole cities': The population magnets draining Japan's countryside
• What are common between Tottori Prefecture and India?: Rethinking population density
• Notes

Editorial: Yumiko's Take

• Pre-Compact City Toyama with shuttered streets
• Implications to the current inbound tourist boom in Japan
• Kobe: Highest QOL in my life so far

Translation of the programme

Introduction

Japan's population decline is no longer a future threat; it's a present reality. With the population concentrated in major cities, rural areas are facing significant challenges. This programme examines the crucial question of urban planning in this context, focusing on the contrasting approaches of Kobe City and Toyama City.

Kobe City recently enacted an ordinance to regulate the construction of high-rise condominiums (known as "tower mansions", or タワマン), effectively halting further development of these buildings. Meanwhile, Toyama City is pursuing a "Compact City" model of urban development.

Guest Speakers:

• Yoshihiro Katayama, former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications and former Governor of Tottori Prefecture
• Fusaho Izumi, former Mayor of Akashi City
• Kosuke Motani, Chief Senior Economist, The Japan Research Institute"

Unless otherwise noted, all remarks are by the moderator.

Japan's population: Halving in the next 100 years?

The photo depicts Japan's population during the first 1000 years after the Kamakura period. Since the end of WWII, the population peaked at roughly 120 million in 2008. However, over the next century, it is estimated to fall to almost half that number, though projections vary. What would a return to Meiji-era population levels signify?

While the total population won't halve for another century, the decline is already happening. Look at the number of children aged 0-4: it's 60% lower than it was 40 years ago in 1975. This means there will be 60% fewer people aged 50 in 50 years (Motani).

Case study: Kobe City – High-rise condo regulation

Kobe City has amended an ordinance, restricting the floor-area ratio for residential use to a maximum of 400% in the city centre, between Shin-Kobe Station.

This effectively makes it impossible to build new high-rise condominiums, as this restricts the maximum height of developments. The mayor, Kizo Hisamoto, expressed concerns that uncontrolled construction could result in vacant properties, or akiyas (空き家), leading to urban imbalance and suburban population outflows.

Mayor Hisamot says:

If high-rise condominiums are not properly maintained and managed, they will fall into disrepair and become derelict (what the Japanese call 'haiki-butsu', or 廃棄物) if left unattended. We were very afraid that constructing more high-rise condos would lead to an uneven and unsustainable urban landscape, with clusters of high-rises in some areas and neglect in others.

There are also concerns about the challenges of evacuating residents from high-rise buildings, particularly those on upper floors, in the event of a large-scale disaster. Ensuring adequate disaster preparedness and evacuation plans for a large high-rise population presents a significant challenge. Given the inevitability of population decline, urban development strategies must adapt to this new reality. We must carefully consider what kind of development best suits a city with a shrinking population.

Discussion: Who will take care of high-rise condos in the future?

More and more new houses, even detached houses, are still being built in Tokyo. This continuous construction contributes to existing houses becoming vacant, creating more akiya in the future.

This is not just a problem of high-rise apartments; it reflects a wider issue with housing policy across Japan. Despite a clear oversupply of housing, the current tax system continues to incentivize new construction. This system urgently requires fundamental review. (Katayama)

Motani points out that building more high-rise condos is creating future problems, such as disposal issues.

Who will dispose of high-rise condos, for example? Companies that own the building will pay the demolition costs in the case of office buildings. However, in a typical 'tower mansion', where many individuals own units within the same building, residents may be faced with significant demolition costs as the building ages.

Imagine reaching 70 years old and being asked to contribute to the demolition of a 50-year-old building... Can you afford to do that? While many residents contribute to a reserve fund for building maintenance, this fund rarely covers the immense costs of demolition.

Building high-rise apartments without considering demolition is wrong. In Japan, it is impossible to destroy them because many individuals privately own small areas in one 'tower mansion.' This raises concerns about potential product liability issues, where developers or builders could be held responsible for the long-term costs associated with these buildings. If you are crazy about the economy, the side effects are enormous. This issue is further compounded by the practical limitations of maintenance. For instance, scaffolding can typically only be erected up to the 14th floor, making repairs and inspections on higher floors significantly more challenging and expensive. (Motani)

Case study: Toyama City – Rebuilding itself as a 'Compact City'

Facing challenges such as urban sprawl and a declining population, Toyama City pioneered the 'Compact City' concept about 20 years ago. This innovative approach aims to create a vibrant and convenient urban environment where residents can access all essential amenities, including housing, workplaces, schools, and medical facilities, within a concentrated area. Efficient public transport, such as light rail systems, connects these amenities, reducing reliance on cars and promoting a more sustainable lifestyle.

This concept is often visualised using the 'Kushi and Dango 🍡' model. Imagine a skewer ('kushi') representing the public transport line, with clusters of residential areas ('dango') gathered around each station along the line. This model effectively illustrates how the Compact City promotes convenient access to amenities.

The initiative has successfully increased the proportion of Toyama's population living in these designated Compact City zones, where amenities and housing are clustered around public transport, from 28% to 40%, with a target of 42% by 2025. To further encourage this shift, the city provides subsidies to businesses and households that build housing in the designated areas, particularly those closer to the city centre. These incentives have proven effective, with a noticeable increase in residents moving to these areas.

To address the needs of its residents, the city has also invested in community facilities, such as a comprehensive care centre built on the site of a former primary school (closed due to the declining birth rate). This centre houses a clinic, a nursery for sick children, a nursing school, and a sports gym.

Discussion: Beyond the 'connected' – Building truly networked cities

The Compact City policy aims to shift urban residents away from car dependency and towards increased use of public transport. By improving convenience and accessibility, the policy encourages residents to return to city centres, leading to a revitalisation of commercial activity and a more vibrant urban core. Toyama City serves as a prime example of how these principles can be successfully integrated to create a more sustainable and attractive urban environment (Katayama)

What about other areas, i.e., the remaining 60% of the population living outside the central region?

It's important to stress that this concept is often misinterpreted. There's a misconception, particularly among those in Kasumigaseki (the central government), that compact cities are about destroying the countryside. This is simply not true. Both the current and previous mayors fully understand the concept and have never advocated for anything like that. (Motani)

When I was Mayor of Akashi, I often cited Toyama City as an example of innovative urban planning. The term 'compact' often leads to misconceptions about this approach. The focus is not simply on concentrating people and amenities around stations, but on connecting them. By utilizing the public transport network, they are creating a connected, 'networked' city, I'd say. This approach is very practical. Rather than trying to ensure equal convenience across the entire city, which is difficult to achieve, it focuses on establishing key hubs with concentrated amenities. (Izumi)

'Black hole cities': The population magnets draining Japan's countryside

Despite a birth rate below 1.0, Tokyo has increasingly become a 'black hole' for the country, absorbing people from rural areas and exceeding 14 million in population. With in-migration far surpassing out-migration, it has become what's known as a 'black hole municipality' – one with a low birth rate that relies heavily on population inflows from other regions to sustain itself. Seventeen municipalities in Tokyo, along with 25 others nationwide, including Kyoto City and Osaka City, are classified as 'black hole' areas.

Tokyo's situation is unique compared to other cities in Japan. Its limited land area creates distinct challenges that aren't applicable to larger, more spacious towns. While Tokyo attracts young people with its abundant job opportunities, its limited living space and challenging environment for raising children contribute to its low birth rate.

This influx of young people further exacerbates labour shortages in rural areas, while Tokyo itself struggles to increase its birth rate due to the aforementioned challenges. I believe Tokyo is facing a truly serious demographic crisis, with a declining birthrate and an ageing population. This raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of the city. For instance, how will high-rise condos be maintained in the future with a shrinking and ageing population?" (Katayama)

Is it long overdue for Tokyo to think about how to handle so much overcrowding?

[Yes,] I think so. The situation in Tokyo is particularly concerning. While it may seem like Tokyo is thriving due to an influx of young people, the reality is that the number of older adults is increasing at an alarming rate. This presents a serious demographic challenge. This rapid growth in the elderly population is often overlooked because the influx of young people creates a false sense of security." (Katayama)

What are common between Tottori Prefecture and India?: Rethinking population density

Motani argues that Japan's rural regions are often 'incorrectly perceived as underpopulated or unsustainable.’ While there might be slight differences between international and domestic standards, the overall picture is quite similar. Yellow bars represent cities in other countries, while blue bars represent Japanese prefectures. ‘The concept of depopulation is viewed differently in Japan. If administrative services cannot be provided in depopulated areas, they cannot be provided in most of the world,' emphasises Motani.

Through my travels around many countries, I've come to realise that Japan has a misconception about population density. Take Tottori Prefecture, for example, the least densely populated prefecture in Japan. Its population density is comparable to that of India, the fourth most densely populated country in the world. Even if Japan's population is halved in the future, as projected, Tottori's population density would still be higher than Italy's (Motani)

The perception of overpopulation in Japan is actually linked to the rate of population decline, rather than the actual population density. As Motani-san rightly pointed out, statistics and comparisons haven't traditionally been made based on population density. The widespread feeling of stagnation in Japan stems from the fact that the population is shrinking year after year.

Also, given the decreasing number of young people and the growth of the older population, many people can't see any prospects for the future, can't visualize a future where they live, and thus, people lose confidence. His points raise an important question: how can we create and promote a vision of thriving local communities, even with a smaller population?" (Katayama)

Is the future of a city now more than ever dependent on the vision and leadership of its mayor?

One advantage of Japan's local government system is that it allows for more localised decision-making, preventing the kind of centralised failures that can occur when the national government dictates everything. Simply following the central government's directives often proves ineffective. (Katayama)

Exactly. Places that take the proper steps will survive. The real challenge lies in addressing the akiya problem, which cannot be effectively handled by the market economy alone. (Motani)

In summarising the key takeaways, Katayama stressed the importance of creating more opportunities for women, since many are leaving rural areas due to limited job opportunities, which in turn leads to fewer children being born.

The pervasive feeling of stagnation in Japan stems from the continuous decline in population. With the dwindling youth population and the rise of the elderly, this demographic shift leads to a loss of hope and confidence, as many struggle to envision a future for themselves and their communities.

Rural areas face an excess of men as young women migrate to cities. While many women in rural areas still aspire to marriage, they also desire fulfilling careers—a goal often at odds with the traditional expectation that married women should be homemakers. Ironically, rural areas often fail to provide stable employment opportunities, even in fields traditionally dominated by women. Teachers, librarians, and childcare workers are frequently relegated to precarious non-regular positions.

This 'Administrative Reform' (gyosei kaikaku or 行政改革 in Japanese) has ironically undermined the very communities it aims to serve. Local governments must prioritise the needs of their residents, particularly young women, by providing secure employment opportunities and fostering an environment where individuals can thrive and envision a fulfilling future (Katayama)

Notes

Kobe City '特別用途地区「都心機能誘導地区」' from the ordinance '神戸市民の住環境等をまもりそだてる条例 (Ordinance to protect and foster the living environment, etc. of the citizens of Kobe [available in Japanese only])' amended July 2020

Kobe City’s Official' note': '神戸市タワマン規制｜三宮にタワマンはいらない！ 神戸の都市経営戦略' (Kobe City’s 'tower-mansions' Regulation｜No Tawamans in Sannomiya! Kobe's urban management strategy' [availabe in Japanese only])

富山市’コンパクトシティ' ('Compact City' by Toyama City [in Japanese only])

'Toyama' by World Bank Tokyo Development Learning Center (TDLC)

Editorial: Yumiko's take

Pre-Compact City Toyama with shuttered streets

My personal connection to Toyama, where I began my journalism career in the late 90s, gives me a unique perspective on its recent transformation. Having lived there until 2002, I can attest that the clip accurately portrays the city's successful reactivation and city planning, as I'll explain below.

Despite living in Toyama for several years, I never truly felt at home there. At the time, Toyama was a typical example of a declining regional city, struggling with population loss and economic stagnation.

The local use of the term 'tourist' was particularly hurtful. It wasn't used in the conventional sense, but rather to denote anyone perceived as an outsider, regardless of their actual residency status. This made me feel like I would never truly belong unless I fully assimilated into the local community, which, to me, implied marriage, death, and burial there (none of which were part of my plans). The local culture was quite insular, and I constantly felt like an outsider. This feeling of being treated as a 'foreigner' in my own country is, unfortunately, not uncommon in Japan.

My lingering bitterness dissolved the moment I stepped out of the station last year, after nearly two decades of absence. I struggled to reconcile my memories with the scene before me. The once-desolate station square was now a bustling hub, teeming with life and the rhythmic hum of the light rail. This initial impression deepened as I explored the city over the next few days. The transformation was so profound that it turned into a truly memorable, almost sentimental journey, unlike any I had experienced in recent years

Toyama's transformation was remarkable. It stood as a testament to the possibility of revitalising a once-declining city, attracting both locals and tourists. I had previously believed that only major tourist destinations like Fukuoka or Hiroshima could overcome the challenges of population decline and revitalise themselves. Toyama proved me wrong. The TV programme shed light on the factors contributing to Toyama's revitalisation, demonstrating that with careful planning and community engagement, even regional cities can thrive.

Admittedly, it's difficult to say whether the underlying culture has truly changed. However, I did observe a significant difference compared to other regional towns, where young people often leave their hometown for bigger cities and never return. Instead of young people leaving and never returning, I saw many actively working and contributing to the city. This, at least, is an encouraging sign of revitalisation and a more inclusive environment.

The newly opened co-working space, SCOP Toyama, can embody this revitalisation — a development project unimaginable just a few decades ago. The former civil-servant apartment is now renovated and has become a start-up hub, including a shared office, 'trial' shops for those interested in launching small-scale businesses, and apartments. This innovative space, along with the city's overall transformation, is surely attracting new residents and visitors alike. I can now confidently recommend Toyama to anyone seeking a vibrant and welcoming environment.

Implications to the current inbound tourist boom in Japan

Finally, if I have any concerns, and this is not limited to what Toyama used to be, I can say this from my experience there: I can't help but view the current inbound tourism boom in Japan with a sense of unease, reminiscent of my time in Toyama. I perceive an underlying attitude that foreigners, despite their contributions, are merely tourists and will never truly be accepted as members of the Japanese community. What do you think?

Kobe: Highest QOL in my life so far

I lived in Kobe for two years during the mid-2010s. Of all the cities I've lived in, including Tokyo and London, Kobe offered me the highest quality of life. Although the city ordinance to restrict high-rise apartments was amended in 2020, it has recently made headlines again due to the completion and sale of the last 'tower mansion,' which began construction just before the amendment took effect.

Kobe's urban development has been remarkably unique. The municipality actively developed the mountainous areas like Rokko, constructing numerous houses and apartment complexes known as 'danchi (団地)'. Simultaneously, soil excavated from these mountains was used to create artificial islands* like Port Island and Rokko Island, showcasing a unique approach to land reclamation. *こうべキッズ百科：神戸の生活・自然 (Kobe Kids Encyclopaedia: Life and Nature in Kobe (Artificial islands [in Japanese only])

It appears that Kobe aims to address the rapid ageing of its suburban areas, particularly the 'danchi' developments, while simultaneously controlling population density in the city centre by restricting high-rise apartments.

A key challenge for Kobe is addressing the decline in tax revenues resulting from its shrinking population, which fell below 1.5 million last year for the first time in 22 years. To better understand this demographic shift and its implications, the city plans to introduce new statistical measures to inform its policy-making, according to NHK news.

In the 'News Insights' section, Yumiko, the publisher of Small Business Japan, shares her unique perspective as both a business owner and former newspaper journalist. She'll highlight valuable news for anyone involved in small businesses in Japan or those interested in starting one.

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